Today's Geopolitical Shifts
By Darrell Lee
Today's world is witnessing a shift in geopolitics, marked by the resurgence of certain powers, the decline of others, and a fracturing of long-standing alliances. The rise of China, coupled with increasing strains within the Western alliance, most notably the transatlantic relationship, could signal a reshaping of the global order. To make sense of these complex shifts, it is invaluable to turn to history and examine the trajectories of past empires that experienced decline, such as the Roman, Ottoman, and British Empires. By analyzing the patterns, economic factors, internal divisions, and external pressures that contributed to their fall, we can better understand whether the current geopolitical realignment represents a unique departure or a predictable cycle in the ebb and flow of global power.
The Roman Empire, the most influential and enduring empire in history, provides a case study for understanding the dynamics of imperial decline. Rome dominated the Mediterranean for centuries, projecting its military might, political authority, and cultural influence across an extensive territory. Beginning in the late 2nd century CE, the empire began to show signs of strain, leading to its fragmentation and collapse in the West by the 5th century CE. Several factors contributed to Rome's decline. Economically, the empire faced increasing challenges in managing its territory. The costs of maintaining a large standing army, combined with inflation and economic inequality, strained the imperial treasury. The reliance on slave labor, while initially fueling economic growth, ultimately stifled innovation and created social unrest. Internal divisions also played a role. Political instability, characterized by frequent power struggles, civil wars, and the rise of powerful generals, weakened the central authority of the empire. The division of the empire into Western and Eastern halves by Diocletian in the late 3rd century CE, intended to improve governance, ultimately worsened these divisions and created competing centers of power. External pressures further compounded Rome's problems. The migration of Germanic tribes into Roman territory, driven by economic hardship and pressure from other groups, such as the Huns, put a strain on the empire's borders. Once the most formidable fighting force in the world, the Roman army found itself overstretched and increasingly reliant on mercenaries. The sack of Rome by the Visigoths in 410 CE, though not the end of the Western Roman Empire, symbolized its vulnerability and decline.
The Ottoman Empire, another long-lasting empire, offers a different perspective on the dynamics of decline. At its height in the 16th and 17th centuries, the Ottoman Empire controlled a territory spanning parts of Europe, Asia, and Africa. However, by the 19th and early 20th centuries, it had become known as the "sick man of Europe," gradually losing territory and influence before its dissolution in the aftermath of World War I. The decline of the Ottoman Empire was a complex process driven by a combination of factors. Economically, the empire fell behind its European rivals after the Industrial Revolution. Its agricultural economy could not compete with the industrialized economies of Europe, and it became increasingly reliant on foreign loans. Rising nationalism among the ethnic and religious groups within the empire, including Greeks, Serbs, and Armenians, fueled separatist movements and undermined central authority. The empire's political system, characterized by a centralized bureaucracy and a succession of weak or incompetent sultans, struggled to adapt to the changing circumstances. European powers, seeking to expand their colonial empires, encroached on Ottoman territory, seizing control of North Africa, the Balkans, and the Middle East. The rise of Russia as a power in the east placed pressure on the empire's borders. Military defeats against European powers, such as the loss of territories in the Balkans, demonstrated the empire's weakening military strength.
The British Empire, the largest empire in world history, provides a more recent example of imperial decline. At its peak in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the British Empire spanned territories across the globe, controlling a quarter of the world's population and landmass. However, the empire rapidly disintegrated following World War II, as former colonies gained independence and Britain's global influence waned. Several complex factors contributed to the decline of the British Empire. Economically, the costs of fighting two world wars strained Britain's resources. The rise of the United States and other economic powers challenged Britain's global dominance. The growing strength of nationalist movements in the colonies, driven by a desire for self-determination and inspired by democratic ideals, made it increasingly difficult and costly for Britain to maintain its control over them. While less pronounced than in other empires, internal divisions within Britain also played a role. The economic hardship following World War II led to social unrest and a growing acceptance of decolonization. The rise of anti-colonial movements, supported by the Soviet Union and other communist powers, put pressure on Britain to grant independence to its colonies. The changing geopolitical landscape after World War II, the rise of new superpowers, and the emergence of the United Nations made it difficult for Britain to maintain its imperial possessions.
When we turn to the present and examine the current geopolitical realignment, particularly the rise of China and the fracturing of the Western alliance, we can see these same historical patterns at work. China's rapid economic growth has propelled it to become the world's second-largest global power. Its increasing military strength, assertive foreign policy, and growing technological capabilities have challenged the long-standing dominance of the United States and the Western world. In some ways, this economic and military expansion resembles the growth of empires, such as the Ottomans, in their rise to global dominance.
The Western alliance, developed during the Cold War to counter the Soviet Union, is facing increasing strains. The rise of populism and nationalism in several Western countries, coupled with divergent economic interests and differing foreign policy priorities, has weakened transatlantic relations. The war in Ukraine solidified some Western alliances in the short term, but long-term cracks remain. This fracturing is similar to the internal divisions that plagued the Roman and Ottoman empires, although the causes differ.
Economically, the globalized world is more complex than in previous eras. Interdependence is high, but competition for resources, markets, and technological leadership is intense. China has challenged the economic dominance of the West, leading to trade disputes and concerns about the future of the global economic order. The situation is not directly parallel to the financial issues faced by declining empires, but it highlights the importance of economic power in shaping the global balance. Internal divisions in Western nations manifest in political polarization, social unrest, and a growing distrust of institutions. These divisions, although not always aligned with the ethnic and religious divisions that plagued the Ottoman Empire, are nonetheless significant and pose challenges to the unity and cohesion of the Western alliance. The rise of nationalist and populist movements has led some countries to prioritize national interests over international cooperation, further weakening the alliance. Very much like the political instability seen in the late Roman Empire.
China, as mentioned, is a considerable challenge. Russia's resurgence and willingness to use military force present a substantial threat to Western security. The proliferation of non-state actors, such as terrorist groups, and the increasing importance of cyber warfare add complexity to the geopolitical landscape. Climate change, a global challenge that requires international cooperation, strains relations as countries pursue divergent policies and struggle to agree on solutions. Though distinct from the barbarian invasions or European colonialism faced by past empires, these pressures are no less significant in their impact.
Are the current geopolitical shifts a unique departure or a predictable cycle? The answer is likely a combination of both. China's rise and the Western alliance's fracturing are not entirely unprecedented. History has seen rising powers challenging established orders and shifting alliances in response to changing circumstances. Economic competition, internal divisions, and external pressures are recurring themes in the decline of empires.
However, the 21st century, with its interconnected global economy, advanced technology, and new global challenges like climate change, adds unique dimensions to the current realignment. The pace of change, driven by rapid technological advancements, is faster than in previous eras. The flow of information, capital, and people across borders is far more extensive, creating new opportunities and challenges. The role of non-state actors and the importance of soft power, cultural influence, and technological innovation are more noticeable. While the historical patterns of imperial decline offer valuable insights, the current geopolitical realignment unfolds in a unique environment.
The current geopolitical realignment is best understood through a view that combines history with an awareness of the unique features of our time. The decline of the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and the British Empire offer valuable lessons about the patterns of economic decline, internal divisions, and external pressures. However, the specifics of our era —rapid technological change, interconnected globalization, and new global challenges — mean that this realignment is not simply a repetition of the past. It is a complex and evolving process with the potential to reshape the international order in unforeseen ways, requiring careful analysis and a nuanced understanding of both history and the present moment.
Darrell Lee is the founder and editor of The Long Views, he has written two science fiction novels exploring themes of technological influence, science and religion, historical patterns, and the future of society. His essays draw on these long-standing interests and apply a similar analytical lens to politics, literature, artistic, societal, and historical events. He splits his time between rural east Texas and Florida’s west coast, where he spends his days performing variable star photometry, dabbling in astrophotography, thinking, napping, scuba diving, fishing, and writing, not necessarily in that order.